The Florida Senate
BILL ANALYSIS AND FISCAL IMPACT STATEMENT
(This document is based on the provisions contained in the legislation as of the latest date listed below.)
Prepared By: The Professional Staff of the Committee on Appropriations
BILL: CS/CS/SB 1954
INTRODUCER: Appropriations Committee; Environment and Natural Resources Committee; and
Senator Rodrigues and others
SUBJECT: Statewide Flooding and Sea-level Rise Resilience
DATE: April 2, 2021 REVISED:
ANALYST STAFF DIRECTOR REFERENCE ACTION
1. Schreiber Rogers EN Fav/CS
2. Reagan Sadberry AP Fav/CS
Please see Section IX. for Additional Information:
COMMITTEE SUBSTITUTE - Substantial Changes
I. Summary:
CS/CS/SB 1954 establishes statewide resiliency programs that assess and address inland and
coastal flooding and sea level rise. The bill creates:
 The “Resilient Florida Grant Program” within the Department of Environmental Protection
(DEP) which provides funding, subject to appropriation, to local governments for the costs of
resilience planning and projects to adapt critical assets, as defined in the bill
 The “Comprehensive Statewide Flood Vulnerability and Sea Level Rise Data Set and
Assessment,” to be updated every five years. The DEP must:
o Develop a statewide data set necessary to determine the risks to inland and coastal
communities, including statewide sea level rise projections; and
o Develop a statewide assessment, based on the statewide data set, which identifies
vulnerable areas, infrastructure, and critical assets.
 The “Statewide Flooding and Sea Level Rise Resilience Plan.” The DEP must annually
submit a plan proposing up to $100 million in funding for projects that address risks from
flooding and sea level rise. The bill authorizes local governments, regional resilience entities,
and water management districts to submit lists of proposed projects to the DEP for inclusion
in the plan. The DEP must implement a scoring system, established in the bill, for assessing
projects for inclusion in the plan.
The bill authorizes the DEP, subject to appropriation, to provide funding to regional resilience
entities for providing technical assistance, coordinating multijurisdictional vulnerability
assessments, and developing project proposals for the statewide resilience plan.
BILL: CS/CS/SB 1954 Page 2
The bill requires the University of South Florida to create a hub to coordinate and lead statewide
efforts for research and innovation regarding flooding and sea level rise.
The bill requires the Office of Economic and Demographic Research to add an analysis of
flooding issues to its annual assessment of Florida’s water resources and conservation lands.
The Senate proposed budget includes 25 positions and $9 million from the Resilient Florida
Trust Fund to operate the Resilient Florida Grant Program.
The bill takes effect upon becoming a law.
II. Present Situation:
Flooding and Sea Level Rise
The effects of climate change1 include sea level rise, increasing storm intensity, and increasing
frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events.2 These trends result in increased flooding in
inland and coastal areas.3 With 1,350 miles of coastline, relatively low elevations, and a porous
geology, Florida is particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding.4 Coastal areas are facing the
combined effects of sea level rise, storm surges, and extreme precipitation.5
Sea level rise is an observed increase in the average local sea level or global sea level trend.6
Climate change is causing global sea level rise through two primary factors: the loss of land-
based ice (ice sheets and glaciers) due to melting and thermal expansion caused by the warming
of the oceans (water expands as it warms).7 Global mean sea level has risen about eight to nine
1
See National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Global Climate Change, Facts, Effects,
https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ (last visited Feb. 6, 2021).
2
U.S. Global Change Research Program, Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in
the United States, 31, 40-43, 97, 116-118, 745, 762, 1482 (2018) [hereinafter NCA4], available at
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf (last visited Feb. 6, 2021); Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 7-8, 10, 42, 47-49, 53, 60, 74 (2014),
available at https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf (last visited Mar. 8, 2021).
3
NCA4, at 757-768.
4
Florida Division of Emergency Management, Enhanced State Hazard Mitigation Plan, 107-108, 162 (2018) [hereinafter
SHMP], available at https://www.floridadisaster.org/globalassets/dem/mitigation/mitigate-fl--shmp/shmp-2018-
full_final_approved.6.11.2018.pdf (last visited Feb. 6, 2021). Florida has over 8,000 miles of coastline when considering
intricacies such as bays, inlets, and waterways; McKinsey Global Institute, Will Mortgages and Markets Stay Afloat in
Florida?, 10, 12, 27 (2020) [hereinafter MGI Mortgages and Markets], available at
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability/Our%20Insights/Will%20mortgages%
20and%20markets%20stay%20afloat%20in%20Florida/MGI_Climate%20Risk_Case%20Studies_Florida_May2020.pdf (last
visited Jan. 31, 2020). Florida’s porous limestone foundation causes saltwater intrusion and seepage from underground.
5
See SHMP, at 107.
6
Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), Florida Adaptation Planning Guidebook, Glossary (2018) [hereinafter
DEP Guidebook], available at https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/AdaptationPlanningGuidebook.pdf (last visited
Jan. 31, 2021).
7
Id.; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content,
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content (last visited Jan. 31, 2021).
More than 90 percent of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean.
BILL: CS/CS/SB 1954 Page 3
inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating: 0.06 inches per year throughout most of
the twentieth century, 0.14 inches per year from 2006-2015, and 0.24 inches per year from 2018-
2019.8
Sea level rise data is obtained through various scientific equipment: tide gauge stations record
the local height of the surrounding water level relative to a reference point on land, and satellite
laser altimeters measure the average height of the entire ocean.9 Data is incorporated into
numerous online tools for visualization.10 Scientific projections for future sea level rise and
precipitation vary based on modeling using different scenarios of future greenhouse gas
emissions and atmospheric concentrations.11 After 2050, the various projections for sea level rise
and precipitation diverge significantly based on different scenarios of emissions trajectories.12
Rising sea levels result in gradual coastal inundation.13 Sea level rise raises the height of high
tide.14 Since 2000, the frequency of “high tide flooding” in the U.S. has more than doubled, with
data showing significant increases at tide gauge locations in Florida.15 For example, research
shows that in Miami Beach, between 1998 and 2013, the frequency of recurrent tidal flooding
events quadrupled.16 The frequency of such flooding is expected to continue to increase.17
Impacts of flooding from sea level rise in Florida include disruptions in transportation and
impairment of infrastructure such as roads, stormwater systems, and wastewater systems.18 Sea
level rise causes saltwater intrusion of both surface water and groundwater, threatening fresh
water resources including coastal aquifers.19 It causes coastal erosion and threatens coastal
ecosystems which, when healthy and allowed space for landward migration, are critical for
8
NOAA, Climate Change: Global Sea Level, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-
global-sea-level (last visited Jan. 31, 2021). The melting of glaciers and ice sheets (such as the Greenland and Antarctic Ice
Sheets) is accelerating, and from 2005-2013 melting caused nearly twice as much sea level rise as thermal expansion.
9
NOAA, Tides and Currents, Sea Level Trends, https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/ (last visited Jan. 31, 2021).
Showing trends in data from tide gauge stations around Florida; NOAA, Is Sea Level Rising?,
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html (last visited Jan. 31, 2021); see SHMP, at 107. “Relative sea level” is
measured locally using tide gauges. “Eustatic sea level” is measured globally based on the volume of water in earth’s oceans.
10
DEP, Presentation to the Florida House of Representatives Environment, Agriculture, & Flooding Subcommittee (Feb. 4,
2021), available at https://www.myfloridahouse.gov/VideoPlayer.aspx?eventID=6697 (last visited Feb. 10, 2021).
11
NCA4, at 1, 6, 40-43, 84-91, 338, 751, 758, 762.
12
Id. at 41-42, 109; IPCC, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 4-9–4-10 (Sept. 2019), available at
https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf (last visited Jan. 31, 2021); Southeast Florida Regional
Compact Climate Change (SFRCCC), Unified Sea Level Rise Projection Southeast Florida - 2019 Update, 7, 25, 29 (2019)
[hereinafter SFRCCC Update], available at https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Sea-
Level-Rise-Projection-Guidance-Report_FINAL_02212020.pdf (last visited Jan. 31, 2021).
13
SHMP, at 108; SFRCCC Update, at 17. Rapid pulses are possible.
14
SHMP, at 101, 108.
15
NOAA, 2019 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2020 Outlook, v-3, 15-16 (2020), available at
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook
_30June2020.pdf (last visited Jan. 31, 2021). High tide flooding (also called “nuisance” or “sunny-day” flooding) begins to
occur when coastal water levels reach heights between .5-.65 meters above the daily average highest tide.
16
SFRCCC Update, at 31.
17
NOAA, 2019 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2020 Outlook, v, 11-12 (2020); SFRCCC Update, at 31-32.
18
See SFRCCC Update, at 5.
19
SHMP, at 106; SFRCCC Update, at 33-35.
BILL: CS/CS/SB 1954 Page 4
resilience.20 Sea level rise also raises coastal groundwater tables and pushes salt water further
inland.21 Many of these processes are exacerbated by Florida’s porous limestone geology.22
Future storms are generally expected to have increased average intensity and precipitation
rates.23 Storm intensity is a principal determinant of storm surge height.24 Storm surges are water
driven ashore by the wind during severe weather, and they are an especially dangerous aspect of
coastal flooding.25 Sea level rise is expected to increase the impacts from storm surges as they
will build on top of a higher base of water, travel farther inland, and impact more areas and
properties than in the past.26
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, leading to more frequent and intense extreme
rainfall events that are contributing to increased inland and coastal flooding.27 Extreme rainfall
events can stress or overwhelm stormwater infrastructure, while sea level rise impairs gravity-
driven systems and reduces the discharge capacity of coastal water control structures.28 By
raising groundwater levels, sea level rise reduces the ability of rainfall to infiltrate the soil, and
the reduced soil storage capacity causes flooding.29
Florida’s 35 coastal counties contain 76 percent of its population and 79 percent of its total
economy as of 2012.30 One study found that 20.5 percent of properties in Florida were at
substantial risk of flooding in 2020 and 24.3 percent will be at such risk by 2050.31 Another
study found tidal flooding could result in a total property devaluation of $10-$30 billion by 2030
and $30-$80 billion by 2050, and that real estate losses during 100-year storm surge events could
20
SFRCCC Update, at 35; SHMP, at 106, 221; NCA4, at 340-341, 690, 775, 833. Coastal ecosystems reduce erosion, buffer
against waves and storm surge, attenuate wave energy, maintain water quality, and provide habitat for wildlife.
21
SHMP, at 108.
22
See Urban Land Institute, The Business Case for Resilience - Regional Economic Benefits of Climate Adaptation, 20 (2020)
[hereinafter Business Case for Resilience], available at https://knowledge.uli.org/-/media/files/research-reports/2020/the-
business-case-for-resilience-in-southeast-
florida_final.pdf?rev=81609c7f6b72479d89c49aff72fea446&hash=FB2E953B8A456CFE781169A0CAA82333 (last visited
Jan. 31, 2021).
23
NCA4, at 97, 116-118, 1482; see Knutson et al., Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment, Part II: Projected
Response to Anthropogenic Warming, American Meteorological Society, E317-E318 (2020), available at
https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/3/E303/345043/Tropical-Cyclones-and-Climate-Change-Assessment (last
visited Jan. 31, 2021).
24
SHMP, at 141.
25
SHMP, at 100; Emrich et al., Climate-Sensitive Hazards in Florida, Identifying and Prioritizing Threats to Build Resilience
against Climate Effects, Storm Surge 1 of 37 (2014), available at https://flbrace.org/images/docs/climate-sensitive-hazards-
in-florida-final-report.pdf (last visited Feb. 4, 2021).
26
SHMP, at 100, 106-108, available at https://www.floridadisaster.org/globalassets/dem/mitigation/mitigate-fl--shmp/shmp-
2018-full_final_approved.6.11.2018.pdf (last visited Jan. 31, 2021); NCA4, at 758, available at
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf (last visited Jan. 31, 2021).
27
NCA4, at 88, 97, 113, 745, 762, 1447; SHMP, at 106.
28
NCA4, at 763; SFRCCC Update, at 5, 34.
29
SFRCCC Update, at 33; SHMP, at 106, 181.
30
DEP Guidebook, at III, available at https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/AdaptationPlanningGuidebook.pdf (last visited
Oct. 16, 2019); see MGI Mortgages and Markets, at 13. Almost 10 percent of the state’s population is less than 4.9 feet (1.5
meters) above sea level.
31
First Street Foundation, The First National Flood Risk Assessment: Defining America’s Growing Risk, 39 (2020), available
at https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf (last
visited Oct. 8, 2020). The study calculates substantial risk as a 1 percent annual risk of 1 cm of inundation or more.
BILL: CS/CS/SB 1954 Page 5
reach $50-$75 billion by 2050.32 A regional analysis found that in Southeast Florida alone, by
2040, $4.2 billion in property value could be lost to daily tidal inundation and one 10-year storm
tide event could cause $3.2 billion in property damage.33 It is estimated that Florida has nine of
the top ten counties in the nation for total annual risk of economic loss from flooding.34 Despite
the risks, people and capital continue to flow into exposed coastal areas in Florida.35
As sea level rise continues, financial impacts may include increases in flood insurance costs,36
decreases in property sales or property values, and increased risk for lenders.37 Coastal flooding
can disrupt local economies and tourism, leading to lost revenues for the public and private
sectors, and over time risks include loss or impairment of employment opportunities and public
services and infrastructure.38 Coastal flooding can cause displacement in frontline communities,
and the burdens of adaptation are likely to disproportionately impact vulnerable populations.39
Studies show significant positive returns on investment calculated for resilience measures,
including the following benefit-cost ratios: $6 for every $1 spent through federal grants on
natural hazard mitigation, and, for future resilience investments in Southeast Florida, $4 for
every $1 on building-level adaptations and $2 for every $1 on community-wide adaptations.40
Sea Level Rise Projections
Entities from the international to the local level use scientific data and modeling to create
projections of future sea level rise for planning and decision-making. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes 195 member countries compiling climate change
science reviewed by thousands of experts around the globe and intended to reflect the full range
of scientific views.41 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates
32
MGI Mortgages and Markets, at 15–19, available at
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability/Our%20Insights/Will%20mortgages%
20and%20markets%20stay%20afloat%20in%20Florida/MGI_Climate%20Ris