Annual Outlook Report
Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund
Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development
Department of Unemployment Assistance
October 2024
 Maura T. Healey, Governor
Kimberley Driscoll, Lieutenant Governor
Lauren Jones, Secretary
Executive Office of Labor
and Workforce Development
Annual Outlook – October 2024
Table of Contents 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 3
About the Massachusetts Unemployment Insurance Program ......................................................................................... 3
Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Projection of Balance and Solvency ...................................................................................................................................... 4
Projections ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
State Comparisons ............................................................................................................................................................ 5
Federal Advances, Bond Issuance and COVID-19 Recovery Assessment ...................................................................... 6
Economic Basis for Projections ......................................................................................................................................... 6
Summary of Projected Inflows ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Summary of Projected Outflows .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Appendix 1: Detailed Programmatic Background and Methodology ................................................................................... 11
Experience Rate Table .................................................................................................................................................... 11
Economic Projections Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 12
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................ 13
Unemployment Insurance Definitions .............................................................................................................................. 14
Appendix 2: Data Projections Tables .................................................................................................................................. 16
1
This report includes data illustrated in charts. For an accessible version of the data in all charts, please see the Appendices.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Annual Outlook Report October 2024
INTRODUCTION
About the Massachusetts Unemployment Insurance Program
Unemployment Insurance (UI) is an economic stabilization program implemented under federal and state law that
provides a safety net for workers who become separated from employment due to no fault of their own. The UI program
provides temporary benefits to unemployed workers from the Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance’s
(DUA) Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund (UI Trust Fund). Employer-paid state unemployment taxes and
reimbursements fund the UI Trust Fund and pay for benefits. The United States Department of Labor (USDOL) allocates
funds from the Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA) to the state to pay for DUA administrative and operational costs.
Additional information, including past reports, can be found at https://mass.gov/uitrustfund.
Those seeking further information regarding the UI Trust Fund can email economicresearch@mass.gov.
The projections, forecasts, estimates, and other forward-looking statements contained in the 2024 UI Trust Fund Annual
Outlook Report are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from the
projections set forth. DUA uses information from sources that are believed to be reliable; DUA assumes no responsibility,
however, for information from sources outside the Commonwealth and its agencies.
Summary
This Annual Outlook Report provides the status of the UI Trust Fund (UITF) and updated projections for the 2024 through
2028 outlook period.
As required by MGL Chapter 151A, Section 14F, DUA publishes an Annual Outlook Report and quarterly outlooks for the
UI Trust Fund based on forecasts for total unemployment rate, annual wage and salary growth rate, and annual labor
force. DUA also provides monthly updates on the status of the UI Trust Fund.
Projections of wage and salary growth, total unemployment rate, and the size of the labor force in Massachusetts for
each calendar year of the Outlook Period (2024-2028) are represented in Figure 3 through Figure 6. For purposes of the
projection estimates contained in this Annual Outlook Report, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
is the primary source for historical actual data on wages and salaries. Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) are
the primary source for official unemployment rates and size of the labor force. DUA relied on Moody’s forecasts dated
October 2024 to track forecast trends as they change over time. Moody’s forecasts were used to project historical QCEW
and LAUS data over the Outlook Period for wage and salary growth, total unemployment rate, and size of labor force.
The outlook presented is for the regular UI program based on 2024 employer experience rates and claims activities
through the third quarter of 2024, ending September 30, 2024. Key findings on the year include:
• Year-to-date employer contributions through September 30, 2024, are estimated to be approximately $989
million with a 2024 projected year-end total estimated to be $1.13 billion.
• Year-to-date benefit payments through September 30, 2024, are approximately $1.62 billion, with a 2024
projected year-end total estimated to be $2.30 billion.
• The balance of the UI Trust Fund on September 30, 2024, was $2.42 billion on a cash basis. The 2024 UI Trust
Fund year-end balance is projected to be $1.91 billion.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Annual Outlook Report October 2024
PROJECTION OF BALANCE AND SOLVENCY
As of September 30, 2024, the preliminary Massachusetts UI Trust Fund ending balance was $2.42 billion with a year-
end fund balance projected at $1.91 billion (Figure 1). Comparisons to other states’ trust fund balances, net of federal
advances, is in Figure 2. For an accessible version of the data in all charts, please see Appendix 2: Data Projections
Tables.
Projections
To project future UI Trust Fund solvency, DUA utilizes forecasts prepared using QCEW actuals for the period ending
March 31, 2024. The QCEW total private employment is projected forward by taking growth rates from the Moody’s total
nonagricultural employment series. The forecasts on wage and salary growth, unemployment rate, and size of the labor
force for calendar years 2024 through 2028 are shown in Figure 4 through Figure 6.
Figure 1: Projected UITF Balance at End of Quarter, 2024-2028
$4.0
Dollars (in Billions)
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
($0.5)
($1.0)
Shaded area denotes projection years
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Annual Outlook Report October 2024
State Comparisons
Figure 2: Trust Fund Balance Net of Outstanding Federal Advances by State as of 9/30/2024 2
OR, $6.3
NC, $5.0
FL, $4.5
WA, $3.7
MI, $2.8
MA, $2.4
OH, $2.0
NJ, $2.0
MD, $2.0
IA, $1.9
WI, $1.9
GA, $1.9
AZ, $1.8
IL, $1.8
NV, $1.8
IN, $1.7
SC, $1.7
VA, $1.6
KS, $1.6
TX, $1.5
PA, $1.5
TN, $1.4
UT, $1.3
AL, $1.2
MN, $1.1
MO, $1.1
ID, $1.0
KY, $1.0
LA, $1.0
AR, $1.0
OK, $0.8
ME, $0.8
MS, $0.7
AK, $0.7
CO, $0.6
HI, $0.6
MT, $0.6
RI, $0.6
NE, $0.6
WY, $0.5
WV, $0.4
NM, $0.4
NH, $0.4
ND, $0.3
DE, $0.3
VT, $0.3
SD, $0.2
CT, $0.1
NY, $6.1
CA, $19.8
-$25 -$15 -$5 $5
Billions
Source: Unemployment Trust Fund and Advances to State Unemployment Funds reports, treasurydirect.gov (figures are as of September 30, 2024, as
reported on October 1, 2024)
2
Balances reflect nominal trust fund balances net of outstanding federal advances.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Annual Outlook Report October 2024
Federal Advances, Bond Issuance and COVID-19 Recovery Assessment
The federal-state unemployment insurance system and the Massachusetts unemployment insurance program played a
critical role in delivering economic relief to individuals and families experiencing economic hardship during the COVID-19
pandemic. From June 2020 to April 2021, the Commonwealth borrowed $2.268 billion in Federal Advances to pay UI
benefits. In March 2022, $500 million of the borrowed amount was repaid using ARPA funds.
In August 2022, the Commonwealth issued $2.681 billion in special obligation bonds pursuant to the UI Improvement Act
(Chapter 9 of the Acts of 2021) and proceeds were used to (i) repay the outstanding Federal Advances as well as the
accrued interest on such Federal Advances; (ii) fund a deposit to the UI Trust Fund in the amount of $867.6 million; and
(iii) pay bond issuance costs.
The UI Improvement Act provided that a COVID-19 Recovery Assessment will be charged to experience-rated, private
contributory employers for each year the bonds are outstanding. For 2021 and 2022, the COVID-19 Recovery
Assessment was set at $150 million. For 2023, and until no bonds remain outstanding, the Commonwealth will assess
employers a COVID-19 Recovery Assessment that must be at least 125% of the annual debt service on the bonds. The
COVID-19 Assessment is in addition to the SUTA tax charged and is an annually-set fixed percentage of each
employer’s SUTA rate. The COVID-19 Recovery Assessment is credited to a special contribution fund held by the bond
trustee.
Based on assumptions made at the time of issuing the bonds, the projected COVID-19 annual assessment is as follows:
COVID-19 Annual Assessment ($ Millions)
Year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Assessment $915 $465 $349 $334 $318 $301
2025-2028 are estimated and subject to change.
Economic Basis for Projections
Figure 3 shows the summary of the inflows and outflows to the UITF, relevant performance statistics, and cost burden
measures over the projection period. Multiple measures are considered in forming the projections (see appendix for
details). Key among those are wage and salary growth, unemployment rate, and the size of the civilian labor force.
Charts outlining those estimates are below.
• Total and taxable payrolls are expected to end the year lower than predicted last quarter. This change is
primarily due to revisions of the historical data and actuals coming in less than projected. In the August quarterly
report, the rate of wage and salary growth was expected to slow to 1% per quarter by the end of 2024. Current
projections keep growth higher a little longer and push that out to mid-2025. Growth rates are still expected to be
generally stable at just under 1% per quarter for the remainder of the projection period. See Figure 4.
• The unemployment rate is expected to rise more quickly to its long-term rate than in the previous projection. On
the other hand, the stabilized rate is slightly lower than in the previous r