Quarterly Outlook Report
Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund
Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development
Department of Unemployment Assistance
August 2024
 Maura T. Healey, Governor
Kimberley Driscoll, Lieutenant Governor
Lauren Jones, Secretary
Executive Office of Labor
and Workforce Development
Quarterly Outlook – August 2024
Table of Contents 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2
About the Massachusetts Unemployment Insurance Program ........................................................................................ 2
Summary............................................................................................................................................................................ 2
Projection of Balance and Solvency ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Projections ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Federal Advances, Bond Issuance and COVID-19 Recovery Assessment .......................................................................... 4
Economic Basis for Projections.......................................................................................................................................... 4
Summary of Projected Inflows ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Summary of Projected Outflows ............................................................................................................................................ 8
Appendix 1: Detailed Programmatic Background and Methodology ..................................................................................... 9
Experience Rate Table ....................................................................................................................................................... 9
Economic Projections Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 10
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Unemployment Insurance Definitions ............................................................................................................................ 12
Appendix 2: Data Projections Tables .................................................................................................................................. 14
1
This report includes data illustrated in charts. For an accessible version of the data in all charts, please see the Appendices.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
INTRODUCTION
About the Massachusetts Unemployment Insurance Program
Unemployment Insurance (UI) is an economic stabilization program implemented under federal and state law that
provides a safety net for workers who become separated from employment due to no fault of their own. The UI program
provides temporary benefits to unemployed workers from the Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance’s
(DUA) Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund (UI Trust Fund). Employer-paid state unemployment taxes and
reimbursements fund the UI Trust Fund and pay for benefits. Pursuant to the Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA),
the United States Department of Labor (USDOL) allocates funds to the state to pay for DUA administrative and
operational costs.
Additional information, including past reports, can be found at https://mass.gov/uitrustfund.
Those seeking further information regarding the UI Trust Fund can email economicresearch@mass.gov.
The projections, forecasts, estimates, and other forward-looking statements contained in the August 2024 UI Trust Fund
Quarterly Outlook Report are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from
the projections set forth. DUA uses information from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, DUA assumes no
responsibility for information from sources outside the Commonwealth and its agencies.
Summary
This Quarterly Outlook Report provides the status of the UI Trust Fund (UITF) and updated projections for the 2024
through 2028 outlook period.
As required by MGL Chapter 151A, Section 14F, DUA publishes an annual outlook report and quarterly outlooks for the
UI Trust Fund based on forecasts for total unemployment rate, annual wage and salary growth rate, and annual labor
force. DUA also provides monthly updates on the status of the UI Trust Fund.
Projections of wage and salary growth, total unemployment rate, and the size of the labor force in Massachusetts for
each calendar year of the Outlook Period (2024-2028) are represented in Figure 2 through Figure 5. For purposes of the
projection estimates contained in this Quarterly Outlook Report, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW) is the primary source for historical actual data on wages and salaries. Local Area Unemployment Statistics
(LAUS) are the primary source for official unemployment rates and size of the labor force. DUA relied on Moody’s
forecasts dated August 2024 to track forecast trends as they change over time. Moody’s forecasts were used to project
historical QCEW and LAUS data over the Outlook Period for wage and salary growth, total unemployment rate, and size
of labor force.
The outlook presented is for the regular UI program based on 2024 employer experience rates and claims activity
through the second quarter of 2024, ending June 30, 2024. Key findings on the year include:
• Contributions for 2024Q2 are estimated to be approximately $709 million, with a 2024 projected year-end total
estimated to be $1.38 billion. The year-end estimate is down from $1.54 billion made in the April quarterly report.
• Benefits for 2024Q2 are $489 million, which is lower than the previous estimate of $526 million. The year-end
total is estimated to be $2.40 billion, up slightly from $2.30 billion in April.
• The year began with a UITF balance of $2.91 billion. The current balance at the end of 2024Q2 is $2.64 billion.
The year-end balance is projected to be $2.03 billion.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
PROJECTION OF BALANCE AND SOLVENCY
For 2024Q2, the Massachusetts UI Trust Fund ending balance is $2.64 billion (Figure 1). For an accessible version of
the data in all charts, please see Appendix 2: Data Projections Tables.
Projections
To project future UI Trust Fund solvency, DUA utilizes forecasts prepared using QCEW actuals for the period ending
December 31, 2023. The QCEW total private employment is projected forward by taking growth rates from the Moody’s
total nonagricultural employment series. The forecasts on wage and salary growth, unemployment rate, and size of the
labor force for calendar years 2024 through 2028 are shown in Figure 3 through Figure 5.
Figure 1: UITF Balance at End of Quarter, 2023-2028
$4.0
Dollars (in Billions)
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
Shaded area denotes projection years
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
Federal Advances, Bond Issuance and COVID-19 Recovery Assessment
The federal-state unemployment insurance system and the Massachusetts unemployment insurance program played a
critical role in delivering economic relief to individuals and families experiencing economic hardship during the COVID-19
pandemic. From June 2020 to April 2021, the Commonwealth borrowed $2.268 billion of Federal Advances to pay UI
benefits. In March 2022, $500 million of the borrowed amount was repaid using ARPA funds.
In August 2022, $2.681 billion in special obligation bonds were issued pursuant to the UI Improvement Act (Chapter 9 of
the Acts of 2021) and proceeds were used to (i) repay the outstanding Federal Advances as well as the accrued interest
on such Federal Advances; (ii) fund a deposit to the UI Trust Fund in the amount of $867.6 million to pay unemployment
compensation benefits to qualifying persons in the Commonwealth; and (iii) pay bond issuance costs.
The UI Improvement Act provided that a COVID-19 Recovery Assessment will be charged to experience-rated, private
contributory employers for each year the bonds are outstanding. For 2021 and 2022, the COVID-19 Recovery
Assessment was set at $150 million. For 2023, and until no bonds remain outstanding, the Commonwealth will assess
employers a COVID-19 Recovery Assessment that must be at least 125% of the annual debt service on the bonds. The
COVID-19 Assessment is in addition to the SUTA tax charged and is an annually-set fixed percentage of each
employer’s SUTA rate. The COVID-19 Recovery Assessment will be credited to a special contribution fund held by the
bond trustee.
Based on assumptions made at the time of issuing the bonds, the projected COVID-19 annual assessment is as follows:
COVID-19 Annual Assessment ($ Millions)
Year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Assessment $915 $465 $349 $334 $318 $301
2025-2028 are estimated and subject to change.
Economic Basis for Projections
Figure 2 shows the summary of the inflows and outflows to the UITF, relevant performance statistics, and cost burden
measures over the projection period. Multiple measures are considered in forming the projections (see Appendix for
details). Key among those are wage and salary growth, unemployment rate, and the size of the civilian labor force.
Charts outlining those estimates follow the figure. For an accessible version of the data in all charts, please see
Appendix 2: Data Projections Tables.
• Though there is some divergence in the early quarters, the rate of quarter-to-quarter wage and salary growth from
2025 onward is largely unchanged from the previous report though the current estimate of average weekly wage
(AWW) is higher than projected in last quarter’s report. This change carries forward through the projections
resulting in higher forecasted wages in this quarterly report compared to April. The growth rate is expected to
settle just under 1% in 2025 and remain at that approximate level for the rest of the forecast period. See Figure 3.
• The April report contained notable changes in unemployment due to annual benchmarking by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS). In this report, the changes are limited to typical revisions. Both initial unemployment rates
and the quarter-to-quarter change in rates are higher after updates by the BLS and Moody’s. The unemployment
rate is now expected to stabilize at a rate higher than the previous projection from 2025 onward: up to 3.75%
from 3.4%. See Figure 4.
• The civilian labor force also increased after BLS benchmarking in April. This quarter’s updates grow the labor
force still more. The labor force is now expected to increase by 82,000 people between 2024Q1 and 2028Q4,
starting from approximately 3.76 million in 2024Q1 (itself revised up) and ending at 3.84 million by 2028Q4. See
Figure 5.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
Figure 2: Model Projections (2024-2028)
Dollars in thousands
Category 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Balance Jan. 1 $2,906,675 $2,034,842 $1,293,190 $1,021,131 $657,232
Contributions $1,383,579 $1,972,886 $2,610,489 $2,666,297 $2,718,925
Trust Fund Interest $71,601 $48,760 $32,672 $24,089 $12,952
Other Inflows and Outflows 2 $73,995 $0 $0 $0 $0
Inflows Subtotal $1,529,175 $2,021,646 $2,643,162 $2,690,386 $2,731,877
Outlays ($2,401,008) ($2,763,298) ($2,915,221) ($3,054,284) ($3,196,914)
Outflows Subtotal ($2,401,008) ($2,763,298) ($2,915,221) ($3,054,284) ($3,196,914)
Balance Dec. 31 $2,034,842 $1,293,190 $1,021,131 $657,232 $192,195
Category 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Total CY Payroll $311,554,352 $325,015,263 $337,404,831 $350,040,727 $363,230,637
Taxable CY Payroll $51,413,703 $52,280,264 $53,077,856 $53,891,305 $54,740,420
Total CY Contributions as a % of Total CY Payroll 0.44% 0.61% 0.77% 0.76% 0.75%
Total CY Benefits as a % of Total CY Payroll 0.77% 0.85% 0.86% 0.87% 0.88%
Wage Base 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Schedule* C D F F F
Total Unemployment Rate* 3.52% 3.72% 3.74% 3.75% 3.77%
Average Contribution Rate* 2.14% 3.62% 4.72% 4.75% 4.77%
Solvency Rate* 0.77% 0.88% 0.91% 0.96% 0.97%
T.F. Bal as a % of Total Payroll* 0.65% 0.40% 0.30% 0.19% 0.05%
AHCM* 0.380 0.231 0.176 0.109 0.031
Note: Items marked with asterisk (*) show the value in Q4 rather than an annual sum or average.
2
These amounts are those that are exogenous to the projection methodology. For example, in previous years it has
included bond proceeds, employer reimbursements, and the like. In recent reports it has primarily served as an
adjustment to reconcile estimated values with the known balances at the end of each quarter and largely represented
contributions from government and reimbursable employers.
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
Figure 3: Wage and Salary Growth Rate
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
Shaded area denotes projection years
Figure 4: Unemployment Rate
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Shaded area denotes projection years
Figure 5: Civilian Labor Force
3,860
Civilain Labor Force (in Thousands)
3,840
3,820
3,800
3,780
3,760
3,740
3,720
3,700
Shaded area denotes projection years
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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Quarterly Outlook Report August 2024
SUMMARY OF PROJECTED INFLOWS
Chapter 151A requires p