HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STAFF ANALYSIS
BILL #: HB 5015 PCB APC 22-08 Evaluation of Significant State Risks
SPONSOR(S): Appropriations Committee, Perez
TIED BILLS: IDEN./SIM. BILLS:
REFERENCE ACTION ANALYST STAFF DIRECTOR or
BUDGET/POLICY CHIEF
Orig. Comm.: Appropriations Committee 29 Y, 0 N Harrington Pridgeon
SUMMARY ANALYSIS
While the state takes great measures to ensure economic and demographic forecasts are used to plan for
anticipated needs of the state, there is no process to identify and evaluate the most significant risks confronting
the state comprehensively or to evaluate interventions available to mitigate such risks.
The bill creates the Legislative Office of Risk Assessment, a joint unit of the Legislature, which will be headed
by a Chief Risk Officer. The bill requires the office to:
 Identify significant risks to the state and develop and biennially update a State Risk Register;
 Identify potential cost-effective interventions to mitigate the risks included in the State Risk Register;
 Estimate the economic damage associated with the risks identified in the State Risk Register within a
10-year and 30-year timeframe;
 Estimate the anticipated reduction in economic damage associated with the potential interventions
within a 10-year and 30-year timeframe; and
 Provide the Legislature with a process and the analytical tools required to consider and manage
significant risks comprehensively and not in isolation over a 10-year and 30-year period. The office
must develop a support process capable of providing comparisons of the cost-effectiveness of different
combinations of interventions for all risks included in the State Risk Register based on the anticipated
level of economic damage in adverse cases and the investment in interventions over both a 10-year
and 30-year timeframe.
By July 1, 2023, the office must submit to the Legislative Budget Commission (LBC) a State Risk Register and
a list of potential cost-effective interventions to mitigate the risks include in the State Risk Register. The
submission must include the estimates of the economic damage associated with the significant risks identified
in the State Risk Register and the estimates of the anticipated reduction in economic damage associated with
all identified interventions within a 10-year and 30-year period. The State Risk Register must be updated
biennially thereafter and submitted to the LBC.
By July 1, 2024, and each July 1 thereafter, the office must prepare and submit to the President of the Senate
and Speaker of the House of Representatives an annual progress report, using evaluation metrics to assess
the state’s progress in mitigating the economic damage associated with the significant risks identified in the
State Risk Register over a 10-year and 30-year period. The annual progress report must also identify emerging
risks for inclusion in the next annual update to the State Risk Register.
The bill creates a Risk Estimating Conference. The bill provides that the conference must develop estimates of
the economic damage associated with risks identified in the State Risk Register and the reduction in the
potential economic damage associated with the risks in the State Risk Register anticipated to result from
potential interventions intended to mitigate such damages.
The fiscal impact of the bill is indeterminate. See Fiscal Comments.
This docum ent does not reflect the intent or official position of the bill sponsor or House of Representatives .
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 FULL ANALYSIS
I. SUBSTANTIVE ANALYSIS
A. EFFECT OF PROPOSED CHANGES:
Background
The Office of Economic and Demographic Research is a research arm of the Legislature principally
concerned with forecasting economic and social trends that affect policy making, revenues, and
appropriations. Estimating conferences include those focused on criminal justice, demographics, early
learning, the Florida Retirement System, and economics. 1 Such forecasts are essential for a variety of
government planning and budgeting functions, including ensuring that Florida meets its constitutional
balanced budget requirement.
While the state takes great measures to ensure economic and demographic forecasts are used to plan
for anticipated needs of the state, there is no process to evaluate significant risks comprehensively or
to evaluate interventions available to mitigate such risks. Risks to the state include cyber,
communicable diseases, water quality and quantity, and natural disasters among others. State
reserves have been sufficient to address risks, including declared states of emergency, thus far. There
is, however, no comprehensive fiscal strategy to reduce risks across the board.
In 2021, the Speaker of the House of Representatives commissioned Willis Towers Watson (WTW) to
develop a state-wide strategy to identify and prepare for the leading risks facing the state. In
commissioning this assessment, Florida became the first state to conduct a state-wide risk assessment
to demonstrate how evaluating risks collectively can aide in policymaking. The WTW assessment is
anticipated to be finalized this month and should serve as a starting place to initiate an ongoing process
of identifying, analyzing and managing Florida’s most significant risks.
Effect of the Bill
The bill creates the Legislative Office of Risk Assessment, a joint unit of the Legislature governed by
the Joint Rules of the Senate and House of Representatives. The bill provides that the office will be
headed by a Chief Risk Officer, appointed by and serving at the pleasure of the President of the Senate
and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. The Chief Risk Officer may employ qualified
individuals and contract for professional services necessary to carry about the duties of the office,
subject to approval of the President of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
The bill requires the office to:
 Identify significant risks to the state and develop and biennially update a State Risk Register.
The Register must identify the most significant risks to the state over a 10-year and 30-year
timeframe. Risks must be measured by the estimated value of cash damages during the
timeframe and by the estimated peak state gross domestic product decline during the same
period.
 Identify potential cost-effective interventions to mitigate the risks included in the State Risk
Register.
 Estimate the economic damage associated with the risks identified in the State Risk Register
within a 10-year and 30-year timeframe.
 Estimate the anticipated reduction in economic damage associated with the potential
interventions within a 10-year and 30-year timeframe.
 Provide the Legislature with a process and the analytical tools required to consider and manage
significant risks comprehensively and not in isolation over a 10-year and 30-year period. The
office must develop a support process capable of providing comparisons of the cost-
effectiveness of different combinations of interventions for all risks included in the State Risk
1Consensus Estimating Conferences, EDR, http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/conferences/index.cfm (last visited February 7,
2022).
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 Register based on the anticipated level of economic damage in adverse cases and the
investment in interventions over both a 10-year and 30-year timeframe.
By July 1, 2023, the office must submit to the Legislative Budget Commission (LBC) a State Risk
Register and a list of potential cost-effective interventions to mitigate the risks include in the State Risk
Register. The submission must include the estimates of the economic damage associated with the
significant risks identified in the State Risk Register and the estimates of the anticipated reduction in
economic damage associated with all identified interventions within a 10-year and 30-year period.
By July 1, 2024, and each July 1 thereafter, the office must prepare and submit to the President of the
Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives an annual progress report, with the report using
evaluation metrics to assess the state’s progress in mitigating the economic damage associated with
the significant risks identified in the State Risk Register over a 10-year and 30-year period. The annual
progress report must also identify emerging risks for inclusion in the next annual update to the State
Risk Register.
By July 1, 2025, and by July 1 of each odd year thereafter, the bill requires the office to submit to the
LBC an updated State Risk Register. The submission must include the estimates of the economic
damage associated with the significant risks identified in the State Risk Register and the estimates of
the anticipated reduction in economic damage associated with all identified interventions within a 10-
year and 30-year period.
The bill creates a Risk Estimating Conference. The bill provides that the conference must develop
estimates of the economic damage associated with risks identified in the State Risk Register and the
reduction in the potential economic damage associated with the risks in the State Risk Register
anticipated to result from potential interventions intended to mitigate such damages.
B. SECTION DIRECTORY:
Section 1. creates s. 11.9006, F.S., creating the Legislative Office of Risk Assessment, requiring the
office to create a State Risk Register, and requiring certain reports.
Section 2. amends s. 216.136, F.S., establishing a Risk Estimating Conference.
Section 3. provides that the bill is effective July 1, 2022.
II. FISCAL ANALYSIS & ECONOMIC IMPACT STATEMENT
A. FISCAL IMPACT ON STATE GOVERNMENT:
1. Revenues:
None.
2. Expenditures:
See Fiscal Comments.
B. FISCAL IMPACT ON LOCAL GOVERNMENTS:
1. Revenues:
None.
2. Expenditures:
None.
C. DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT ON PRIVATE SECTOR:
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 None.
D. FISCAL COMMENTS:
The bill creates a joint legislative office dedicated to identifying and evaluating significant risks to the
state and identifying and evaluating intervention strategies to reduce the risks to the state over a 10-
year and 30-year period. The House proposed 2022-23 GAA includes recurring appropriations for the
legislature that can be utilized to support the joint legislative office created in this bill.
Although the bill does not mandate any specific legislative action, the bill will likely result in more
purposeful evaluation of risks, costs, and long-term strategies to reduce the state’s risk exposure. The
House proposed 2022-23 GAA includes funding to reduce the state’s risk exposure including $171
million to support improving Florida’s cybersecurity, $1.2 billion for Everglades restoration and
protection of Florida’s water resources, and an additional $50 million to invest in a new State
Emergency Operations Center.
III. COMMENTS
A. CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES:
1. Applicability of Municipality/County Mandates Provision:
Not applicable.
2. Other:
None.
B. RULE-MAKING AUTHORITY:
None.
C. DRAFTING ISSUES OR OTHER COMMENTS:
None.
IV. AMENDMENTS/COMMITTEE SUBSTITUTE CHANGES
Not applicable.
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